Every six weeks the Federal Reserve releases its FOMC statement. However, pre fomc spread widening begins hours earlier, stealth-taxing spreads and margin. Because pre fomc spread widening is invisible in many back-tests, it routinely triggers hidden prop-firm violations. This long-form guide arms you with:
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A micro-timeline of spread creep.
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Two percentile tables comparing calm vs pre-FOMC hours.
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Eight data-driven stats all prop traders must know.
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Firm-specific lot, margin, and hold-time traps.
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A case study from the May 1 2025 FOMC.
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Risk-buffer guidance anchored to live spreads.
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A five-step execution playbook & printable checklist.
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FAQ built from 2025 support tickets.
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1 Timeline – When Does
Pre FOMC Spread Widening
Begin?
|
UTC |
EURUSD Spread |
Liquidity Driver |
|---|---|---|
|
10 : 00 |
0.8 pip (baseline) |
Europe + NY desks overlap |
|
14 : 00 |
+15 % |
Algo hedging & option rolls |
|
17 : 00 |
+25 % |
US banks square books |
|
18 : 45 |
+40 % |
CME futures pause; depth fades |
|
19 : 00 |
+65 % |
Statement release |
Gold widens sooner—often +50 % by 17 : 00. BTC perp thins only after 18 : 30 because Asia has shut.
2 Overlap vs FOMC – Double-Whammy Liquidity Risk
London–NY overlap already delivers velocity; pre fomc spread widening adds cost on top of speed. A 15-pip move may still print, but entry spread doubles, crushing R:R. Full overlap stats live in London New York Overlap Volatility.
3 Percentile Tables – Calm Days vs Pre-FOMC (Apr–Aug 2025)
Major FX
|
Pair |
75ᵗʰ Range Calm |
75ᵗʰ Range Pre-FOMC |
Median Spread Jump |
|---|---|---|---|
|
EURUSD |
17 p |
19 p |
+0.5 pip |
|
GBPUSD |
22 p |
26 p |
+0.8 pip |
|
USDJPY |
18 p |
21 p |
+0.6 pip |
|
XAUUSD |
$1.40 |
$1.90 |
+$0.25 |
Crypto Perps
|
Asset |
75ᵗʰ Range Calm |
75ᵗʰ Range Pre-FOMC |
Spread Jump |
|---|---|---|---|
|
BTCUSD |
$132 |
$168 |
+$6 |
|
ETHUSD |
$8.6 |
$11.2 |
+$0.8 |
Percentiles refresh quarterly—bookmark this post for the newest pre fomc spread widening values.
4 Prop-Firm Limits & Liquidity Vacuum
A Fed study on trading around FOMC releases shows liquidity makers vanish 45 s pre-statement.
|
Firm |
Pre-FOMC Rule |
Activation Window |
|---|---|---|
|
FTMO |
No new gold trades 30 min pre; hold ≥60 s post |
All FOMCs |
|
FundedNext |
BTC lot cap −50 % |
18 : 00 – 20 : 00 |
|
E8 |
Margin +25 % on majors |
1 h pre |
|
MyForexFunds |
Ticket ≤3 lots |
15 min pre |
Missing a cushion? Build one with Daily Drawdown Buffer before the event.
5 Eight Key Stats for
Pre FOMC Spread Widening
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EURUSD median spread: 0.8 → 1.3 pip.
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Gold Level-2 depth halves by 17 : 00.
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BTC open interest drops 12 % pre-statement.
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Stop-run probability rises 28 %.
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Prop violation tickets spike 34 %.
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Swap rollover overlaps Fed 50 % of cycles.
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Slippage on 1-lot EURUSD market sell: 0.1 → 0.4 pip.
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Spreads normalise ≈ 20 min post-statement.
6 Risk-Buffer Guidance
If spread ≥ 20 % of planned stop, reduce risk 40 %. Hold your lot-size bumps until after spreads retrace to baseline. Detailed percent-to-buffer logic ties back to your Daily Drawdown Buffer.
7 Position-Sizing Hacks
|
Metric |
Normal Day |
Pre-FOMC |
|---|---|---|
|
Risk / trade |
0.5 % |
0.3 % |
|
Stop floor |
25ᵗʰ pct |
35ᵗʰ pct |
|
Lot bump |
+10 % weekly |
Frozen |
|
Buffer reserve |
0.2 % cap |
0.4 % cap |
8 Case Study – May 1 2025 FOMC
14 : 00 UTC: EURUSD spread 0.9 pip.
17 : 05: widens to 1.2 pip, depth 40 % lower.
18 : 53: spikes 1.6 pip; slippage on 2-lot sell = 0.7 pip.
19 : 22: spread back to 0.95 pip; normal trading resumes.
Outcome: Traders who risked 0.3 % and waited for post-release fill avoided violations; those with 0.5 % pre-FOMC lost daily-loss buffer.
9 Execution Playbook (5 Steps)
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Block 18 : 50–19 : 10 UTC no-trade.
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Convert TP to fixed $ (spread distorts pips).
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Cancel order if spread ≥ 20 % stop.
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Stage post-release limits once spread halves.
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Journal slippage & depth for next cycle tuning.
10 Printable Checklist
[ ] Calendar & blackout set
[ ] Risk cut to 0.3 %
[ ] Stop ≥35th percentile
[ ] Spread ≤20 % stop?
[ ] Lot bump frozen
[ ] Buffer ≥0.4 % cap
[ ] Slippage loggedFAQ –
Pre FOMC Spread Widening
Why spreads widen before, not after, news?
Liquidity providers avoid adverse fills; depth vanishes pre-statement.
Safe to trade demo?
Spreads widen there too, skewing stats—better wait.
When do spreads normalise?
Usually 20 min; crypto recovers fastest.
Disclaimer
Rules change; confirm live spreads and firm limits before trading. Educational content—no financial advice.
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